Annual Reports to
Family and Friends
1994-present
from Paul VanRaden
2024 Annual Report
December 31, 2024 at 2pm
Greetings from Poinciana, FL where I’m
spending the holidays. In a few months I will retire when I’m 65 in May and move
here. Last April 2024 Angel got engaged to Cesar Morel who she has known since
high school. The next week after their engagement, Cheryl and I went on a
cruise with them. In December they moved about 30 miles away from Poinciana to
Lake Nona, near the Orlando airport, to be closer to their jobs. They are
planning their wedding for later in 2025.
During all of 2024 I used my Egyptian
calendar with the days numbered 1 to 366. It has 12 30-day months plus 5 or 6
days at year end, and today is leap day 366 which comes at the end of every 4th
year on the Egyptian calendar instead of having uneven months and putting leap
day somewhere in the middle as the Romans did. Happy leap day! My calendar was
pretty full so it was good to get that extra day today,
even if most people thought the extra day was in February. If you want to use
the Egyptian calendar for 2025 it is available, along with other new reports on
making English easier, making the world more democratic, and the rediscovered family
audio from 1986 at:
paulvanraden.com/Calendars_OldMeetsNew.htm
http://www.paulvanraden.com/Easy_English.htm
paulvanraden.com/United_Earth_Rules.htm
http://www.paulvanraden.com/VanRaden_Family_Audio_1986.htm
While cleaning out my old office files at
USDA I summarized how helpful my college courses were during my 36 years of research.
During 2024 I spoke to student and faculty groups at WI, IA, MD, and MN,
adapting those slides to the audience
at each university. I did not give a speech at U IL because they have few students
in animal genetics there now. But the professor of my favorite class at Urbana,
Mike Grossman, was watching my speech at U WI online when I mentioned his Population
Genetics class. The next day he found the grades from that 1980 class and
reported that I was the only student who got an A+ in that year. He retired from
U IL several years ago but then taught international courses on how to write
scientific papers.
My scientific meetings in 2024 were in W
Palm Beach, FL and in Bled, Slovenia. The main topics of my speeches at both
were about how cow and bull owners all around the world now directly use the US
genetic prediction service. I also gave a farewell speech to Interbull saying
that I loved being at their meetings because then I could think about solving bigger
problems for the whole world instead of solving only the small problems we have
here in America. I also went to research planning meetings in Nashville and
Savannah, GA, but next year other scientists will have those duties. I wanted
to visit museums in DC one more time before moving to FL and Miriam came out
for a week in October and helped me do that.
This year my bike went 1386 miles and my car went 1382 miles so technically I was >
50% green unless we count my airplane miles (>20,000) which were mostly for
business or my cruise ship miles (3,000) or train and subway miles (700) too. Compared
to biking fast and breathing heavy, carbon dioxide emissions per person per mile are about 10 times more by flying, 12 times more by gas
car, and 25 times more by cruise ship because cruises are like taking a house and
a town with you, but passenger trains emit only 1/3 as much CO2 as cycling and subways
emit a little more than cycling due to their frequent stops and starts. In Dec
my old bike broke and I got a new one. My other exercise was about the same as
last year and increased slightly from 208 to 216 total hours.
This year politicians of both parties debated
how to solve the “food price inflation crisis” and the “immigration crisis.” My
grocery bill increased by only 2.8% from $2.54
in 2023 to $2.61 in 2024 for 2,381 calories per day. Most Americans can afford $2.61
per day, so not much crisis here, and milk is now cheaper per calorie than corn
flakes. The U.S. population grew at the slow pace of only 0.7% in 2024 compared
to Earth’s population increase of 1.2%. Neither party proposed asking 1.7
million more people to immigrate next year than immigrated last year just
to keep up with the rest of the world, calculated as the current U.S.
population of 346 million times (1.2% - 0.7%) / 100. Just as last year, America
still housed and fed only 33% of our fair share of earth’s people, see my
updated report on population.
Immigration also decreases the crime
rate because most immigrants commit fewer crimes than most citizens. In DC, the
U.S. politician who committed the most crimes will move back into the White
House in January. Last July, 6 Supreme Court Justices ruled that a President can
commit any crime and they will be fine with that. In the
case of Trump vs. United States, the 3 Justices that got lifetime jobs worth
millions of dollars from him did not recuse themselves from cases about his
crimes. The Supreme Court also blocked many other judges from following the Constitution
and the law.
The earth added 94 million more people in
2024 than the 8 billion of us in 2023. Countries with the highest population
growth rates in 2024 were 6.4% in Syria, 3.2% in Uganda, 2.4% in Ethiopia, and 1.9%
in Pakistan. Lowest growth rates were -1.3% in Puerto Rico, -0.4% in Japan, -0.2%
in Russia, and -0.1% in Germany. About 5 million refugees left Syria 10 years
ago and a half million recently moved back to Syria and helped get rid of their
dictator Assad in December. A Syrian student Bassam was my housemate while in
Iowa and my best friend while we were in Wisconsin. He stayed in Syria and
became Director of Biotechnology in the Syrian government.
I continue to care about all people
equally. Being pro-everyone is not anti-American, it
is simply pro-everyone. About half of Americans voted to make America great
again even if that policy hurts the 96% of people that we force to remain un-American.
Our VanRaden pedigree includes
32 known ancestors from Europe who decided to become Americans. For now, we can
still do what is best for the world and hope that after January 20th
the new government in Washington will not arrest us for that. I am glad that the
Americans did not deport our illegal alien ancestors who took land from the Indians.
Hopefully the aliens and the Indians will be pleased with how nice the whole
earth becomes someday.
Hope you had a happy leap day today and
that your new year is even happier.
2023 Annual Report
December 31, 2023 at 8:15pm
Greetings from Greenbelt after
interesting research projects and a full travel schedule again in 2023. In
Canada I presented new adjustments for uneven milking intervals with Deb as
coauthor and in France methods to account for the growing use of cloning. Other
business trips were to Louisville where I visited the Sabakas,
to Madison when I visited Lanark to sort historical items with Deb and Judy,
and to Phoenix this month. In November I got covid for the first time, no worse
than a bad cold, but had to connect by zoom instead of meeting in person with
industry advisors that flew here to MD to visit us. Covid is causing about 3%
of current deaths and 10% of hospital visits so is still worth not getting.
In September, Cheryl and Angel moved
about 30 miles from Clermont to Poinciana, FL. I may move there too in 2025,
about 900 miles away. In 2023 I started practicing for retirement by doing
non-USDA things such as helping Hillary and Andrea document our ancestry,
writing and posting new material to my world web site, and creating a new
personal web site. The first 2 links below may be of interest and include a few
items borrowed from Hillary’s pedigree pages. The last 3 links are more
technical:
http://www.paulvanraden.com/InteractingWithFamily.htm
http://www.paulvanraden.com/PersonalProblems.htm
http://www.paulvanraden.com/AbortionEthics.htm
http://www.paulvanraden.com/Governing_a_United_Earth.htm
http://www.paulvanraden.com/Calendars_OldMeetsNew.htm
The news continues to report the crisis
that people move from poor places to better places, which seems like a good
thing to me. Moving to FL might benefit someone from Haiti even more than me,
and they live closer to FL (< 900 miles) so obviously that should be
allowed. In recent years, millions of refugees moved from Afghanistan to
Pakistan, millions from Ukraine to Poland and Germany, millions from Syria to
Turkey, millions from Myanmar to Bangladesh, millions from Sudan to Uganda, and
millions from Venezuela to Colombia. Few refugees have moved to the United
States, which is not even in the top 10 destinations. While our politicians
invent new barriers, the real crisis is that we force people to live in
hopeless homes in Haiti, Gaza, etc. instead of letting them move when they
choose to better homes as we do.
Some food prices decreased this year so
I can buy eggs again and my food cost is back down to $2.54 day, only slightly
higher than the $2.28 that I paid for the same items in 1987. Food has inflated
little over 36 years, what a bargain! General inflation this year is closer to
the target of 2%, with 3% in N. America and 4% in Europe compared to last
year’s 7% in N. America and 11% in Europe. Unfortunately, Argentina’s 92%
inflation last year increased to 161% and Venezuela’s 156% increased to 283%
this year. Venezuelans who worked hard in earlier years now have few rights,
jobs, or anything they can afford which is why some walk 2,500 miles to the Rio
Grande. Better news is that Zimbabwe’s inflation is down to 22% this year from
244% last year so we can celebrate their economic turnaround.
Exercise set a new personal record for
me this year with 209 total hours compared to 155 last year. The main reason
was biking the 6-mile round trip to the office most days totaling 1,300 miles.
In 2023 my car went only a little farther than my bike but contributing more CO2
into the atmosphere in its 1,500 miles.
After 7 years I had to update my resume
in December for a small chance to get a higher salary during my last year at
USDA. For the last decade I got inflation increases but no real increase in
salary. Real income for the average person on earth increased by 3% this year,
with 4% salary growth in less developed regions compared to 2.1% in USA, making
some progress toward world equality.
This year 131 million earthlings were
born and 59 million died, increasing earth’s population
by 0.9% in 2023. The U.S. population grew by only 0.5%. Even if we accept a
million more immigrants in 2024 than we did in 2023, our proportion of the
world’s population will continue to decline. Currently the rest of the world
supports about 3 times more citizens per acre of farmland compared to the U.S.
Agriculture remains very important to most of earth’s 8 billion citizens, even
as millions of people in richer regions struggle against obesity.
My optimistic predictions for 2023 did
not come true: Putin did not retire, and Trump is not yet in jail. The obvious
prediction for next year is that we will waste too much time again hearing
about an evil dictator or a candidate promising to become an evil dictator
instead of working together to solve world problems. In 2024, please vote for
the most truthful, law-abiding, kind candidates, even if they are over the
hill. I am nearing the top of the hill and might soon be over the hill so that
I can coast down to the easier life that awaits.
Hoping the new year will be happy and
productive in your region of earth, and in all regions.
Paul
2022
Annual Report
December 31, 2022 at 8:04 PM
Greetings
after another pleasant and productive year in Greenbelt, MD and best wishes for
the next year everywhere. In 2022 many governments rediscovered that prices
tend to go up if you give everyone more money without more stuff available to
buy. Inflation went up to 7% in USA, 7% in Canada, 8% in Mexico, 11% in Europe,
12% in Russia, and 92% in Argentina where citizens are still happy because
their soccer team just won the 2022 World Cup and
their inflation rate is better than the 156% in Venezuela or 244% in Zimbabwe:
Inflation Rate - By Country
(tradingeconomics.com)
During 2022
USDA still did not allow foreign travel but did allow attending domestic
meetings again. In June I chaired the genetics program at the Dairy Science
meeting in Kansas City and attended 4 other domestic meetings, but most smaller
meetings still use zoom. Interbull’s meeting allowed
only in-person talks in Canada so I could not speak to them for the first time
in 20 years but did give an invited remote talk to the World Congress on
Genetics Applied to Livestock Production. They meet every 4 years - this time
was in Rotterdam. USDA scientists could not even pay registration because the
meeting organizers would not sign the new US government form requiring that
they use no Chinese software. Fortunately our
private-sector partners paid registration fees for the USDA scientists.
In September
my research group relocated within Beltsville 3 miles east into the building
that the other half of our Lab was in since we were merged on paper about 15
years ago. The move was an opportunity to thin out my own paper files and
better organize the USDA historical files. Those go back to 1908 when our Lab
invented the Dairy Herd Improvement data collection and analysis system that
now measures up to 50 traits on more than half of all U.S dairy cows,
summarizes bull data from 30 countries, and inspects cow genotypes from 60
countries. Business is booming.
Earlier this
year the official U.S. government retirement income calculator said if I retire
at age 65 my income will be 101% of what I get now for working. During the next
2 years I will try to hand off all current duties to others and then retire to
do other research even more exciting than cow research. In 2021 and 2022 we
hired 2 new scientists and are now hiring 2 new support scientists
so I have a lot of training to do. Last year a high school senior helped as
unpaid intern and then worked as a paid summer intern. Many of our previous
USDA staff now work for the non-profit company that inherited much of the
service work from USDA. Their office is 15 miles further east and could be
another option for me.
This summer
Cheryl and Angel and I attended the Baltimore wedding of stepdaughter Charlee
to Jerry Jackson. They have been together for 7 years and have a son but
finally made it official. See picture of daughters below. Then in October we
took Charlee’s 5 kids and Angel’s boyfriend Cesar to Destin in the panhandle of
FL so Charlee and Jerry could have some honeymoon time also in FL. It was a fun
trip. Next week I will renew my personal passport that expired 6 years ago so I
can use it for flying instead of updating my driver’s license to real ID. Then
I can venture out further and not just attend future official meetings using my
government passport which I will not have in a couple years.
Diet and
exercise can both improve health. For the past 8 years my annual reports have
shown exercise trends in a table but this year in a graph for easier viewing.
For the past 35 years my diet has stayed almost the same and my web site has
updated the exact ingredients and prices every 5 years. This year I added more
charts and graphs such as the one below. Inflation has made it very difficult
to stay below the $3 per day as I did since 1987 but
the inflation adjusted food cost has declined over the decades as shown in the
grey line. Many more nutritious and tasty details about food are available at:
http://www.paulvanraden.com/Nutrition.htm
For the new
year my most optimistic predictions are for Trump to begin a jail term in 2023
instead of a second term in 2024 and for Putin to follow Pope Benedict’s
example and retire instead of being arrested and sent to hard labor in Siberia
or convicted by the international criminal court and deported to The Hague to
serve a life term. Either of those news items will make 2023 very happy. A more
cautious prediction is that Miriam will discover that summer in Antarctica is
colder than any winter in San Diego. In MD, Jan 1 and 2 will be 60 degrees so I
predict getting an early start on 2023 exercise. May your next year be pleasant
and productive.
Paul
2021 Annual Report
December 31, 2021 at 8:52pm
Dear family
My year 2021
began with an easy drive back to MD after 3 peaceful weeks in FL. A few days
later some people who lost the presidential election lost their minds and tried
to keep the Loser here in DC instead of sending him back to FL. He belongs in a
DC prison with those who followed his lead in trying to lose democracy. That is
all I will say about local politics.
Summarizing
family events from 2021 seems less needed after a year of sib zoom meetings
most Saturdays. Thank you Miriam for organizing and
hosting those. Instead I will comment on one of the
several annual reports already received. Bailey Elizabeth Winship still writes
well and keeps up with who's who and what's happening as well as any of her
human companions, but she seems stuck thinking the same final thoughts as 9
years ago. To me that just shows that you cannot teach an old dog new
philosophy. Perhaps Brooke should write next year's letter to see if the next
canine generation has learned new tricks or still believes in that same old
philosophy. My philosophy evolved a lot when I was younger but has been steady
for the past few decades. I hope that your philosophy serves you, those you
know, and the others we share the earth with equally well. If it does not, even
an old human can learn new philosophy.
Learning new
physical activities is not as easy for old humans or old dogs, so I tend to
keep doing the same old activities every year to keep my muscles and neurons
both functioning. This year the outdoor pool and the weight room were closed
again so some other activities were substituted:
Table 1.
Exercise trends that keep Paul healthy
2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
2012 Activity
846 853 811
587 509 516
460 520 425
472 miles biking
180 223 135
108 109 123
105 122 157
116 miles running
130 140 805
565 706 695
610 654 668
433 laps swimming
12 9
13 15 16
19 11 16
15 11 hours basketball
0 3
10 11 11
5 6 4
8 6 hours lifting weights
132 140 159
125 124 124
105 108 109
84 hours vigorous exercise (total)
My year 2021
ended with another December trip to FL but this time I flew down and bought a
car while there, but did not get a chance to drive it.
Maybe next trip. The year 2022 may seem about the same as the previous to most dogs, but most human lives will likely see
more changes. May your philosophy help you keep up with the changes and make it
a happy year for all.
Paul
2020 Annual Report
Dec 31, 2020 at 8:50 PM
Dear sibs
We all survived the pandemic year so
congratulations on that. Our probabilities of survival will increase a little
in 2021 after the vaccines reach us, but of us sibs only Judy (and Harold) are
essential workers needed to keep the nation fed so they might have priority. I
have been in FL the last 2 weeks where 65 year olds in
theory can now get vaccinated but few have yet. Covid has not impacted me much
except that managing employees is a little trickier without seeing them in the
office. Maybe I should have asked Deb for advice from her years of remotely
working for the dental society. One of my postdocs works from OH and one works
here in FL. As of tomorrow I will have 3 more
employees because my boss quit today and moved to Madison to work for an AI and
dairy management company.
My 2020 exercise schedule had to be revised
because the pool and gym were closed most of the year and the county took down
all the basketball hoops also, so I ran twice as far to make up for the lack of
swimming and lifting. Actually I played 3 hours of
basketball with no hoop just to keep up my coordination and imagination.
Table 1. Exercise trends that
keep Paul healthy
2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
2014 2013 2012
Activity
853
811 587 509
516 460 520 425
472 miles of biking
223 135
108 109 123 105
122 157 116
miles of running
140 805
565 706 695 610
654 668 433
laps of swimming
9
13 15
16 19 11
16 15 11
hours of basketball
3
10 11
11 5
6 4
8 6 hours of
lifting weights
The best news of the year was getting rid of our
worst president in US history who spent his first 3 years trying to destroy the
government, his last year failing to use it, and his last 2 months trying to
overturn our old habit of 240 years of democracy. The pandemic was a temporary
inconvenience compared to his more permanent damage of poisoning so many minds.
I am very ashamed that small towns and farm communities bought all the lies,
fear, and hate that he sold. Many years of truth, calm, and love will be needed
to heal the effects of the poison. The new year, and the vaccines, will give us
a chance to recover. Hope 2021 is happier than 2020 wherever you happen to be.
We spent part of Christmas day in Disney because Angel had to work but it was a
little dangerous because of too many people, even with masks. Happy holidays.
Paul
2019 Annual Report
Dec 28, 2019 at 8:10 PM
Dear sibs
Happy holidays! As the new year begins the US
government is open and funded which is a big improvement over the 6-week
shutdown last year. This year instead of trying to build a giant wall
they are debating about the more trivial matter of removing 1
person from office. In our USDA office, 6 of the 13 people that were
working 4 years ago were removed due to 3 retirements, 2 transfers, and 1
death and they were not replaced. But last week we got some good news that
the USDA research budget will increase by 8.5% in 2020, and
two weeks ago we interviewed to refill 1 position. The most
qualified applicant for that was born in USA but spent the next 20 years
growing up in Iran and then returned here for a PhD and is already doing beef
cattle research for USDA in Montana.
The office water has been
undrinkable for a year for about 1,000 researchers in Beltsville due
to too much lead and no funds to fix the problem. But USDA's
own estimate published in 2019 is that the genomic methods
we developed for the past 10 years had a direct benefit to the dairy
industry of $4 billion. Three scientists in our lab are listed as being in
the top 0.1% of scientists based on impact across all
disciplines, and this June I received the award for best research in dairy
science. But next year the Bureau of Engraving and Printing is planning to move
out of DC, tear down the old USDA building where I worked in the
1990's, and build a big new building in its place to print all the $
bills. I suppose that's an easier way to make $4 billion.
In 2019 I had no international travel for the
first time in decades because our national and international meetings
were together in Cincinnati, but I already have 2 trips to The Netherlands
scheduled for the first half of 2020. Last summer Angel tried selling
Toyotas by telemarketing but after a few months went back to the Asian
restaurant job. A new trend in marketing is shop online - pickup in store, and
for the last month Cheryl got paid to shop all day long,
collecting the items that people picked out and
getting them ready either to be picked up or delivered locally. She liked
the job but it was seasonal.
I enjoy getting the nice family pictures
and news from the next generation in our family. Earlier this year when Andrea
and Andy visited DC I remembered a picture of our
large family attending church on Sunday morning in 1963. The attached
is from the 100-year celebration of the Forreston
reformed church. In the front row from left to right are:
Judy Paul Katie Miriam Mark Dave Bud Deb.
Commuting by bike most weekdays gave me more
exercise in 2019 than in previous years. On weekends I ran and
swam more, and the laps in the Greenbelt pool are
also longer than in previous years. In 2020 it will be my turn
to turn 60 but I'm not planning to slow down much. This fall
while Charlee visited FL, I drove granddaughter Samira off to college
in PA for her first semester. Her sister Lexy is also studying and working in
Baltimore. Grandkids in college makes me seem old even if I
don't feel it.
Table 1. Exercise trends that
keep Paul healthy
2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
2014 2013 2012
Activity
811 587 509
516 460 520 425
472 miles of biking
135
108 109 123 105
122 157 116
miles of running
805
565 706 695 610
654 668 433
laps of swimming
13
15 16
19 11
16 15
11 hours of basketball
10
11 11
5 6
4 8
6 hours of lifting weights
Wishing you and your families good health,
peace on earth, and more respect for each other than you
see these days here in DC. Maybe the politicians we choose next year
will get along better and do their jobs so well we will hardly notice
them, and everyone else can enjoy their lives and help others improve
theirs. Happy next year.
Paul
2018 Annual Report, 2019 Predictions
Dec 29, 2018 at 2:19 PM
Dear sibs
Happy holidays to you and thanks for your
nice news summaries, cards, and pictures. My 2018 started with a
2-week trip to New Zealand for meetings where I reported on feed
efficiency as a new trait which we hope to launch officially in 2019. In
2018 we also added genetic rankings for 6 more health traits (mastitis,
ketosis, metritis, retained placenta, displaced abomasum, and milk
fever) now recorded by many dairy farmerrs
in DHIA. In 2019 we will also add rankings for age at first calving to allow
selection for early maturity, and genomic predictions for crossbreds
whereas previously we did only separate predictions for each pure
breed.
This summer to get a shorter commute I sold
my house and moved to 446 Ridge Road, Apt 2, Greenbelt, MD 20770, about 3 miles
from work instead of 19. When the weather is nice I
bike to work on nice bike paths most of the way. This fall my
indoor pool is full length but was half length in previous years, so my miles
of swimming have increase even if laps have decreased (see Table 1). Recently
the USDA Beltsville research center changed water testing methods and found
that our old pipes are delivering many times the allowable levels of lead,
much like in Flynt, MI. I drank only tap water at work for the last 30 years
and hopefully it has not slowed me down, but now they provide bottled water.
In October I got to visit Deb and Judy between
speeches at the World Dairy Expo. In Nov Angel turned 21 and went to Las Vegas
with Cheryl, and in Dec I got to meet Angel's new boyfriend Darren. My
next trip will be to Reno to celebrate 10 years since we invented
genomic prediction and to forecast the next 10 years. Our cow database was the
first to reach 1 million DNA analyses and now we have 3 million but
Ancestry.com now has more than 10 million DNA samples. Cows get results
in 1 week whereas humans have to wait 6-8 weeks for
their DNA results, except during the holidays when the human service
is even slower.
Probably you get too much news already from DC so I try to avoid that if possible. Each
year at USDA seems to bring more projects but fewer researchers to do
them, but this week we are down to 0 researchers. Being unemployed at
the holidays has not slowed me down, but most people prefer doing steady work
for a functional organization. Mark's comments are all true and were
obvious to everyone already in Nov 2016. Unfortunately, half of
Americans voted for the lying and cheating for entertainment sake or because they actually do
hate citizens of other countries, cultures, or religions. In the rural
towns where we grew up, 60-70% still love the lies and fear the world. I do
not. The truths I believe in have stayed true over the last 2
decades and are well documented for all to see:
Wishing you, your families, your friends, your
neighbors, and the whole planet you live on a happier 2019.
Paul
Table 1. Exercise trends that
keep Paul healthy
2018 2017 2016
2015 2014 2013 2012
Activity
587 509
516 460
520 425 472
miles of biking
108 109
123 105
122 157 116
miles of running
565 706
695 610
654 668 433
laps of swimming
15
16 19 11
16 15
11 hours of basketball
11
11 5
6 4
8 6 hours of lifting
weights
2017 Annual Report
Dec 31, 2017 at 8:37 PM
Dear sibs
Happy 2018, in a few hours. The year 2017 was
very busy here but not as happy as some previous years. Life is better when
leaders solve problems rather than create problems for others,
and remove barriers rather than build walls.
As predicted last year, the 4 frozen
jobs at my office are still empty and we have only 10 of our 14
positions filled now, down from 20 employees a decade ago. Instead of
hiring directly, USDA asked us to reroute our leftover budget funds
to hire 2 postdocs for 1 year terms via the
Department of Energy! Normally our workers have to
come to work, but one of the 2 new postdocs is working remotely from the
University of Georgia where she just finished her PhD in animal breeding.
Normally we have to hire U.S. citizens, but the
new jobs were open to foreign citizens, and the second postdoc just
arrived from China. Normally we must work on
only projects in the 5-year plan that we wrote last year
and was approved this year (with the highest possible score from
external reviewers), but instead of working on that we had to think of
additional projects not in our 5-year plan for the 2 new postdocs to work
on! Normally the Chief Scientific Officer at USDA is supposed to know
science, but the president's nominee for that job had no scientific
training and instead was an anti-science talk show host.
My health has been good except for a bad back
for a month last summer. In general, experts continue recommending
exercise as a way to keep feeling young, and I
continue following their advice, as shown in Table 1. My
records use pencil and paper, but many people now wear fitness tracking
devices to estimate how much walking they do, and the phones of some of my coworkers
also measure their driving habits such as speeding, braking, accelerating,
cornering, and rank them compared to other drivers in the county. One
coworker's 19-year-old son already had 5 accidents and totaled 2 cars in
his first 2 years of driving, but his phone still rates him as average for
the county, so either the phone is not accurate or the
county has very bad drivers.
My 20-year-old daughter is a very good driver
and even drove from Shannon to Forreston this
month, stopping at White Oak and at aunt Deb's
farm. We both enjoyed visiting the family, and aunt
Miriam was a great host. Sorry that Angel missed seeing Mark, Lise, and
Gwynneth. When returning to O'Hare after seeing downtown Chicago for a few
hours, my plane was delayed about an hour because of a short snow burst,
and the de-icing crew and equipment were not ready. The thermometer
is forecast to stay below freezing all this week in MD, reminding me
to schedule my next trip to FL. Cheryl continues working at Lowes there, and
Angel at Disney Springs.
Twenty five years ago was the final year of our
brother Dave's life and the first time I wrote a poem. It ended "I
will honor your name just doing more of the same, and
telling truths so clear you'd slightly smile if you were here." In 2017,
truth seemed to disappear from the white house and some areas
of government. Trust is easy to destroy but takes a
long time to restore because many truths and nice things are needed
to counteract each lie and mean thing. Many of us in government still
try to maintain trust by describing the facts and predicting the
future as accurately as possible, and giving society the most value back
for each tax dollar received. You and your families also contribute
very positively to improving earth's total goodness. In 2018 and beyond, we
should continue to say nice things, tell truths, and not allow a loud
mouth's shouts to drown out prouder sounds. We all deserve a happier,
more harmonious new year.
Paul
Table 1. Exercise trends that
keep Paul healthy
2017 2016
2015 2014 2013 2012
Activity
509
516 460
520 425 472
miles of biking
109
123 105
122 157 116
miles of running
706
695 610
654 668 433
laps of swimming
16
19 11
16 15
11 hours of basketball
11
5 6
4 8
6 hours of lifting weights
2016 Annual Report, Holiday Pictures
Jan
7, 2017 at 9:54 PM
Dear sibs
This 2016 report is a little late because I was in FL taking a break, but
after 5 days of 80 degrees I returned to MD in time to shovel
snow and now I have a cold. This report may seem shorter than last year's
but is actually longer, because 2 pictures are worth
2,000 words according to my math. In attached picture a, back row
left to right has Grandma, Charlee, Angel, and Grandpa, middle row has
grandkids Brandon, BJ, Samira, and Elexys, and front row Jeremiah. Angel is 19,
works at Disney, and has a boyfriend, and so far
the grandkid contribution is Charlee 5 and Angel 0 which seems fine
for now.
At my office we had 6 PhDs in 2000 and then
4 in 2015, but in 2016 one retired, one left for a USDA job in WI, and the
other one is now boss of the merged lab and has many more people to manage, so
I have many more duties than before but also a couple more employees of the
scientists that left now working for me. We may not be able to rehire
for the 2 scientists if republicans decide that the best way to
create jobs is by a hiring freeze. In December the dairy breeding
industry approved spending > $1 more for extra data collection. For example,
already a USDA grant spent $5 million to collect daily feed intakes of
5,000 cows, and we will start doing genetic selection to
reduce feed intake for millions of other cows and bulls with the
new data collected. The industry will collect several other new
traits too.
At home, I tried to stay active in case my feed
intake was too high. Most 2016 activity totals are up from 2015 which is good
unless I'm just running in circles. In 2017 I'm getting off to a slow
start because of this cold and snow.
2016 2015
2014 2013 2012 Activity
516 460
520 425 472 miles
of biking
123 105
122 157 116
miles of running
695 610
654 668 433
laps of swimming
19 11
16 15
11 hours of basketball
5 6
4 8
6 hours of lifting weights
0 0
5 3
0 hours of tennis
Thank you for sending your annual reports
and pictures, and may 2017 be another fine year for
you. The next 4 years may be bad for the country, but in
2020 voters can elect someone new to make America great
again. Until then, we can do our best to make the whole world better for
everyone.
Paul
2015 Annual Report, 2030 Predictions
Jan 1, 2016 at 11:31 AM
Dear sibs
Happy New Year! Thanks for sending your holiday
updates, my annual reports are hopefully informative even if not as festive.
The past year was exactly as long as the meteorologists forecast (365 days),
but the next year they predict will have 366 so we'll see if that holds true.
Forecasting the weather is a little trickier, but sometimes they get very
precise with that too. Last winter when the weather.com web site got too slow I
started using accuweather instead, and laughed when
their first forecast said "It will begin snowing
in 7 minutes." I looked out the window and did not see any snow, but 10
minutes later it was snowing, so I was impressed with the accuracy. If their long term warming forecasts are correct, we should all begin
moving north as Mark and Miriam did this year instead of south as the rest of
my family did.
More dairy farmers continue to use the accurate
genetic predictions we calculate at work. In July our database was the first in
the world to have > 1 million DNA samples genotyped. Now we have 1.16
million genotyped dairy cattle, but ancestry.com just passed us with >1.2
million, and 23andMe also has >1 million. Their predictions are not yet very
accurate, but eventually they may catch on.
Two years ago I got a
new boss when our labs merged, but this month she announced that she will no
longer be our boss and will just be a scientist again. For awhile
we will take turns being the acting research leader, but soon will need to
decide on a more permanent replacement. I prefer doing research and programming, but may volunteer. The pay is the same either
way.
Forecasting requires accurate data. When first
comparing this year's activity data to last year's below, I worried that
fitness is declining too quickly. However, the trend from 2012 to 2015 is ok,
so maybe I should not worry. Most extrapolation models predict that my activity
levels will still be positive in 2030 at age 70 rather than 6 feet under. A
steady decline of just 10% / year would lead to a negative biking or running
distance in 2030 using linear prediction, but most experts extrapolate using exponentional functions. In that case, being 90% as active
each year as the last year would reduce activity by .9 to the power 15 or to
only 21% of current fitness in 2030. Holding the decline to just 5% per year
gives 46% of current fitness, whereas just 5% more activity each year could
double your fitness over 15 years. My main activity in 2015 not recorded below
was 3,800 hours of staring at computer screens. Of course, just enjoying life
without so much data analysis is also a recommended option.
2015 2014 2013 2012 Activity
460
520 425 472 miles
of biking
105 122 157 116 miles
of running
610 654 668 433
laps of swimming
11
16 15
11 hours of basketball
6
4 8
6 hours of lifting weights
0
5 3
0 hours of tennis
More important than my happiness or your
happiness is of course the earth's total happiness over all people, with some
credit for animal happiness and a tiny credit even for plant happiness. I
predict that 2016 will be less happy than 2015 because more time will be wasted
on political attack ads instead of calmly solving problems together. Already in
2015 I began watching more news from ALJazeera or BBC, but even their more thoughtful
international reporting often gets trumped by worthless American politics. My
forecast for 2030 is more optimistic than for 2016 because even a political
party that currently seems very hateful and stupid eventually will remember why
that political party was formed: "It is a struggle for maintaining in the
world, that form, and substance of government, whose leading object is, to
elevate the condition of men - to lift artificial weights from all shoulders -
to clear the paths of laudable pursuit for all - to afford all, an unfettered
start, and a fair chance in the race of life. (Abraham Lincoln's speech to
Congress, July 4, 1861).
May you, your families, and everyone get a fair
chance to enjoy 2016 and to prosper until 2030 and beyond. Have a happy year.
Paul
Happy New Year, and 2014 Annual Report
Jan 1, 2015 at 2:23 PM
Dear sibs
Greetings to you in 2015, and congratulations to
us all for completing another lap around the sun while spinning 365 times
toward the east without getting dizzy. This year Miriam intends to do 1 spin toward
the west, but at a less than dizzying speed. During 2014 I went
in a few different directions, spending some weeks in FL and
giving speeches in Berlin, Vancouver, and Phoenix, and next in 2015
will speak in Australia in March. In July the 2 main summer meetings that
I usually attend in Europe and U.S. will be held jointly in Orlando, and
many of the researchers from my office will get to go. Angel will
graduate from high school in late May and is learning a lot about
capitalism. Her employer made her work on Christmas eve, Christmas
day, New Year's eve, and New Year's day, with no extra
pay, and forced the employees to sign a form saying that they would be fired if
they did not show up. Merry Christmas from Ronald McDonald.
At my office we had many changes in
2014. Two years ago USDA began to privatize
our dairy genetic evaluation service and also combined the animal science
and plant science institutes at Beltsville into 1 center. Last April
they announced that our laboratory would be merged with another
and the leader of that lab would become our boss, despite being 1 pay
grade lower and doing much less research than the scientists in our lab.
Then in October USDA merged the regional research offices into
larger areas, forced the Beltsville director who decided on our
lab merger and privatization to retire, and tried
to replace him with a director from TX who left after 1 week on the
job, and then replaced him with another director. Now all of
my 5 immediate bosses have poor to mediocre research records, and all are new
to their jobs within the past 2 years. In October the dairy industry hired
the director of the international bull data exchange system from
Sweden to manage the U.S. privatization effort, but that
transition is going slow and us bureaucrats are still doing most of
the work.
At home I spend most of my time on the
computer but try to keep active to keep my mind off of
office politics. For the last 3 years my log book
shows:
2014 2013 2012 Activity
520 425 472 miles
of biking
122 157 116
miles of running
654 668 433
laps of swimming
16
15 11 hours of
basketball
4
8 6
hours of lifting weights
5
3
0 hours of tennis
Today is a bit too chilly to begin 2015
activities and the community center is closed, so it was a good chance to send
some news. Thank you for sending yours, and hope that our next lap around
the sun brings another 365 good days your way.
Paul
Hello in the New Year
(2013 Annual Report)
Jan 1, 2014 at 9:17 PM
Dear siblings
Greetings and thank you for the letters, news,
and pictures from 2013. The Winship family photo was impressive with some
new faces in the group to create future demand for agriculture. The year was
less eventful here so my report will be short. Mark listed many
reasons for moving to MI, but most did not seem as logical as the reasons
I have heard for moving to FL, except the one about being closer to family that
did make more sense than being further away. Cheryl and Angel are pleased with
their choice and do not miss the winter snow as much as you might expect.
At USDA I have 5 employees now so am keeping
busy organizing more research and still doing lots of computer programming
directly. This fall we celebrated having 500,000 animals genotyped
with a pizza party, and many farmers are now paying about $40 each to get
DNA inspections for their whole herds. Also farmers in
many other countries are getting genomic predictions from us because that
service is either not available or not as accurate there because
of smaller databases. My current research is deriving methods to analyze
full sequence data (3 billion ACGT letters) for each animal because about 500
bulls are now fully sequenced and many of the exact mutations are being
located. After finding those it is extremely cheap to genotype the mutation
site for all other animals, and the Supreme Court in 2013 made it possible for
any U.S. company to read the DNA without worrying about patent fights, but
the genotyping companies do a lot of foreign business where patents
are still enforced so cannot yet take full advantage of the
technology.
The holidays were peaceful and productive here
even if peace on earth has not reached everyone yet. I hope that 2014
is a good year at your current or new location and for your families. Have
a nice new year.
Paul
Happy 2012 (Annual Report)
Jan 2, 2012 at 9:18 PM
Dear siblings
Best wishes for the new year. Only a short
report from me now because more news will arrive in the next weeks or
months. December 31 was the last day of work for my boss Duane Norman after 42
years in our office. He was promoted to research leader in
1988 when they hired me to fill his previous scientist job. Nobody
knows yet who they will promote this time to research leader or if we can hire
another scientist because we are under a hiring freeze. The agriculture
research budget decreased 9% last year and 12% this year, and the
candidates campaigning in Iowa all hope to make more drastic cuts in
the future. During the last 7 years, 7 positions have already been cut
from the 22 employees we had before, at a time when our duties
greatly expanded to include direct analysis of DNA from several countries
(USA, Canada, Great Britain, and Italy). One other scientist George has been
here longer than me but his
research has not had as much impact. Neither of us can get
any salary increase from a promotion because we are both already at the
legal limit. Therefore being named the
leader might be just more hassle and less research even tho it sounds nice.
Christmas and New Year were spent here with
Charlee and her kids, whereas Thanksgiving was on a nice cruise in the Carribean with just Cheryl and Angel. Not
many business trips for a while because our travel budget was cut in
half last year and further cut this year. Not sure who is creating all of those large government deficits, because our
group has not seen many of the proceeds here recently. Hoping your budgets
all improve in 2012 and that you continue to be the leaders in your families
and communities. Have a great year.
Paul
2000
Annual Report
December 20, 2000
Dear
family and friends
Happy holidays and best wishes for your new millennium. The
year 2000 was a good one for me excluding the last month or so. Thanks to those
of you who helped get me back to higher ground after I somehow stumbled into a
depression. In the last year I gave up work on my book The Right To Migrate, but began other hopeless attempts to do impossible
things. Maybe in the future I should stay on level ground instead of climbing
to new heights and then falling to new lows.
My work at USDA went fairly well
this year except a few emergency fixes of data we reported for foreign bulls.
We try to rank all the bulls from 25 nations four times a year. That’s not easy
because some traits are missing and we have to guess
at them and our guess programs didn’t work right. The rest of my projects were
well received and most of the farmers like our new rankings. In July, I received
a national award for my research and a pay raise up to the highest grade that
most scientists get to (GS-15).
On New Year’s eve last year, I
began inventing a new piano keyboard. The current keyboard is okay but not
great and was designed in about 1350 AD. Every piano and organ since then was
tuned with 7 notes per octave on the white keys and 5 notes per octave on the
black keys because the pattern is uneven. A new keyboard with evenly spaced
keys is desperately needed so that users can tune the keys (electronically) with
evenly spaced, simpler math using more or fewer notes per octave. The new
keyboard requires new music notation, so I worked on that, and then made an
audio tape called “The Theory of Music” to explain the new system.
Last spring I noticed that the theory of gravity might be
up-side down so began research on that also in my spare time. Instead of
pulling on each other, pairs of masses might simply be blocking very small
(ether) particles that would have hit the other mass. According to this new
theory, an apple drops because it is pushed from above instead of pulled from
below. Near earth, many of the particles that would have hit the apple from
below are blocked. The fraction of particles blocked by any mass declines in
proportion to the square of its distance away, giving the same math as Newton’s
or Einstein’s theories. I have not yet shared this exciting, new theory with
anyone in physics or astronomy, but maybe some day
they will be ready.
In May, Cheryl and I celebrated our 5th wedding
anniversary with a trip to Las Vegas. Staying together also seems hopeless
sometimes but the probability that we’ll stay married is actually
fairly high compared to some of my other projects. Angel turned 3 in
November and is attending day care three days a week while Cheryl works part
time. Neither of them spend any time helping Daddy
with his new theories. Someday, Paul hopes to aim carefully and throw a
snowball at hell and knock the devil out cold and give everyone a Merry
Christmas.
1999 Report
April 1999
Dear family and friends
Merry Christmas. This letter was about half written in
December but at that time I had more bad news than good news
so I waited for something good to report. The bad news is that USDA wants to
fire me. The government teaches all bureaucrats to believe that everyone should
have equal opportunity and civil rights, but it also says we should never hire
any foreigners. I walked out of the government’s civil rights class because I
can’t pretend that hiring only Americans is fair. I would rather be fair to
foreigners.
The other reason I don’t write much is that I tend to write
sermons that nobody wants to hear. For example, our government could just treat
people as people instead of forcing me to totally discriminate against the majority of people. At a meeting in Australia last year,
I met a Philippine woman studying in Canada using computer programs written by
a German and an American (Ina and me) to analyze Norwegian salmon data. Some of
the salmon may actually have been Swedish citizens
that swam up the wrong stream, but I won’t tell on them if you won’t. End of
sermon.
Angel is almost 1.5 now and she’s doing okay. All little
kids seem about the same to me, but some people think they can see differences
at this age. For example, cousins Andrea and Gabriele, after close inspection,
claimed that “Angel is one of the cutest kids ever!” Their mother said Angel is
adorable, she looks might cute.” She’s still kind of cute even after pulling a
hot iron down off of the counter and hitting herself
in the eye with it. She was happy to entertain visitors Miriam and Bob and also Deb and grandma Katie last year. She likes people.
Cheryl and I don’t let Angel slow us down too much. During
1998 we went to Illinois, Colorado, and New Jersey. Then Cheryl and some
friends took her to South Carolina, and grandma Dora
and Cheryl went to Florida. In October, Angel will be two and then she’ll have
to buy a ticket too instead of flying for free. Because of this, Cheryl and I decided
to take a big four-continent cruise with her this year in April/May. From Miami
we go most of the way to South America and then the ship turns left to Africa
and then left again to Spain and Italy.
No one on Paul’s side of the family has sailed across the
Atlantic since about 1850 and on Cheryl’s side of the family from about 1750.
On of the more exotic stops is Casablanca on May 1, but of course you can rent
the movie and pretend you’re there with us for a few dollars instead of
spending a few thousand. Speaking of movies, last night we watched Titanic and
Angel cried when the ship went down. So we’ll sail
south to avoid the icebergs.
Sincerely,
Paul, Cheryl, and Angel VanRaden
1997 Annual Report
December 1997
Dear family and friends
Happy holidays to everyone. Hopefully, Santa will bring
everyone everything that we ask for again this year. Last year Paul and Cheryl
asked Santa for a baby (mostly Paul’s idea) but Santa
had a busy schedule delivering all of the gifts and didn’t have time to deliver
babies too. So instead of Santa we wondered if the stork could drop off a baby,
but the storks must have been on strike because time went by
and no babies arrived. So we had to make a baby all by
ourselves. The baby arrived in Annapolis, MD, USA on November 13, 1997 weighing 7 pounds 3 ounces (3.27 kilograms) and we
named her Angel Lynne VanRaden. She doesn’t have a halo or wings or any special
powers, we just hope that she’ll try to be as good as a human can be.
In September we moved about three blocks into a nicer townhome
(mostly Cheryl’s idea). Charlee moved about 25 miles to north Baltimore and is spending
her senior year at her father’s house. This summer she got her driver’s license
and then a car and had it for about three days until it smashed into 2 other
cars while she was trying to change its radio station. On the bright side, at
least we have 16 years before Angel asks to borrow the car keys. Our new
address and phone number are listed above and then you can report your news and
your crashes to us.
The job skills that Cheryl learned 17 years ago are still
very useful today. She is enjoying her return to the job of full-time Mom.
After 9 years at USDA, Paul finally has an assistant. For much of the year he
had two. One was a temporary post-doc until USDA got extra funding to continue
the job as a permanent scientist. Then Paul had to fire Yang Da, a highly
qualified researcher with 12 years experience in the
US after coming from China and a PhD from U. Illinois, and replaced him with an
American, who everyone agreed was less qualified, because permanent government
jobs are reserved for American citizens. Yang Da quickly found higher paying
work at U. Minnesota so he’s not too mad at Paul for firing him. Immigrants
can’t get Equal Opportunity even from Paul. Some of them enjoy reading his book
The Right To Migrate.
Last summer the four of us, including little kicking unborn
Angel, cruised to Puerto Rico and on the way back we saw the coastline of Haiti.
Not many babies born in Haiti will ever see the coastline of the United States
because we pay the American Navy and Coast Guard to make sure that they won’t.
At Christmas we remember a baby born almost 2000 years ago in the Middle East.
Our little Angel isn’t perfect, but we would love her the same whether she was
born in the Middle East, America, or Haiti. We hope you would too.
Sincerely,
Paul,
Cheryl, and Angel VanRaden
1996 Annual Report
December 6 1996
Dear family
Here are some pictures from a recent trip that Cheryl and I
took to South America and also copies of some very old
pictures for you that I inherited. If you can find similar interesting old
photos on the Ratmeyer or Ellis side of the family then I’ll make copies for whoever else is interested
in having a set. I’ll keep the negatives so if my nieces and nephews want
copies for their own families some day then they can
just ask and I’ll make some.
As predicted, my family has less news to report from
Maryland this year than we had last year. The big trip we took to celebrate our
first anniversary wasn’t quite as much fun as the honeymoon trip. Cheryl likes
to shop when we’re on vacation (and also on weekends
and after work) and we didn’t find many bargains, so about the only thing she
brought back from South America was me and a few rolls of film. Charlee is hoping
to get a car and a driver’s license for Christmas. Then Cheryl won’t have to
chauffer her to her job at Wendy’s anymore. The computer and printer that she
(we) got for Christmas last year have gotten a lot of use. My book looks more
like a book now and I’ve sold over 20 copies. Mom is the leading purchaser so
far.
Everyone here is fine and we hope
each of you have a happy holiday season.
Sincerely,
Paul et al
1995 Annual Report
December 18 1995
Dear family and friends
Hello and Happy Holidays. The last year was tons of fun
here and I hope that you at least had liters of laughter where you live.
Sometimes I get the urge to go back to the Midwest or the Far East or to your
continent to see you but instead I go back to work and wait for people to come
this way. Mom and Dad and Keith Boldman and Mike Grossman all from Illinois
came to visit this year, so I can’t complain.
In case you wondered what’s been happening in my little
branch of the VanRaden family (or maybe you once knew but don’t remember), here
are the highlights:
January Paul and
Cheryl and Charlee just missed 5 Winships and 1 Levy
at Disney World
May 18 Paul and
Cheryl said “I do.”
May 19 Honeymoon,
tons of fun. My old friends Hiroshi, Chen, and Sompop
from Iowa helped us see Tokyo, Beijing, and Bangkok.
June Cheryl
found a new job at a medical clinic
July Charlee moved to our new house.
November Cheryl found a
better job at a hospital.
November Paul was named
best young scientist in the USDA Agriculture Research Service.
Next year should be less eventful. The main event is that
copies of my book will soon be available for comment. If your schedule for next
year still has some time left for reading, my publisher (Charlee) can send
some. She might need a couple months to get the presses rolling because the
computer and printer are still under the Christmas tree.
Sincerely,
Paul VanRaden
1995 Announcement
February 27 1995
Dear family
Thanks for your letters, pictures, cards, calls, calendars,
checks, etc. Cheryl and I will try to send pictures from time to time. We just
got this engagement picture taken even tho we’ve been
engaged for 8 months. We’re still planning for a little wedding sometime this
year and then many years of companionship, fun, etc.
Also I’m sending a poem
that I wrote for Cheryl (at her request). She got it for her birthday (June 20)
and then we sent it to a National Library of Poetry contest, where it’s a
finalist so far.
http://www.paulvanraden.com/I_Found_Cheryl.pdf
Cheryl, Charlee, and I just back from Florida. We hope that
the rest of you had a good time there too. Sorry to you who stayed at home this
winter even if the weather was better than usual. We had 85 degrees and
sunshine in Florida, so I didn’t mind getting a little soaked on Splash
Mountain. Due to meetings on my cow research, I had to stay inside a couple
days, but the rest of the time was fun.
Paul
1994 Announcement
October 8 1994
Dear family
Hello from Odenton, MD. Cheryl and Charlee and I just moved
into our new townhouse here so this letter is to give
you our new address and phone number. Cheryl and I have been engaged for a few
months and we plan to get married in November 1995 with a very small wedding.
We have room for company in our new house if anyone would like to come visit
us. Charlee (Cheryl’s 14 yr old daughter) will be spending part time in
Baltimore with her father and part time with us. She’s attending a special high
school with medical emphasis.
The house is sort of half way
between my job in Beltsville and Cheryl’s top secret job in Columbia. Odenton
is about 5 miles south of BWI airport, so we’ll be able to hear your plane
coming. Hope to see you soon, but you might want to wait until the furniture
gets here. Sorry if any paint got on the letter.
Paul